Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.