Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
